Gallbladder update: after four days of investigation, the surgical team finally has a plan. Hopefully I can get it done this weekend. If I am stuck here, I'll get my wife to bring in my laptop and I'll write while I wait. I'm on the surgery list, but can get preempted by any more urgent case that comes in from the ER. Luckily none of this costs me anything so we have made all our decisions strictly according to the unfolding medical evidence--hence the wait. They're just being abundantly cautious, which I am happy about.
Once I got past the choke point of the overloaded ER, the care has been exemplary. I've been seen by someone about once every ten minutes; at one point I had four doctors and med techs interviewing me while taking blood, prodding my abdomen, etc. Done two ultrasounds and one CT so far. All free, of course. Anybody would get this treatment if they arrive at this hospital.
I hope your surgery goes well and your recovery is swift. Please let us know how it went as soon as you are able.
I'd like to see you discuss how your futures visioning has evolved in your SF, from pre-to-post Foresight training. Basically a 'how has Karl's work evolved, what have you learned about SF & Foresight, and where are you heading' set of articles.
Feel better, and here's wishes for a swift recovery.
Count myself as someone interested in foresight methods. I've been noodling around in this space for a while, and the two big questions that I have is:
Does foresight require a proper theory of history? Some mental framework that links cause and effect and extrapolates from the past to the present to the future? Or given the impossibility of prediction, what might be enough theory?
A second question is how do we find those details that make foresight exercises feel realistic and actionable? Almost nobody develops an emotional connection to a policy white paper, but certain little details become evocative. Brand names in Neuromancer, the abuse of "pods" as a signal of future per Andrew Dana Hudson, etc. Valens Games runs experiential foresight exercises which hinge on the actions of plausible NPCs and a simulated feed of news and social media commentary. What makes for a good, hooky detail?
Too big a field of issues to get into in a short post that I'm writing on my phone, but to your first question, a grounding in history is incredibly useful but the future is by definition not the past. It's easy to become trapped by apparent parallels to historical events (comparing now to the 1930s, for example). I treat the future as the dimension of surprise, and foresight as the art of managing surprise.
As to your second question, it takes us straight into the topic of design fiction, which I am writing a couple of long posts about right now--or was, until I got laid up. But yes, I'll be writing about those issues.
My daughter just went through the gall bladder routine in February, so sympathies! Hope you have a quick and easy procedure and no complications.
I'm not sure what to suggest for the newsletter. Toby Buckell pointed me your way a while ago and while I sometimes don't buy the premises of your stories and essays, they always make me think and consider *why*.
One tidbit I'll toss your way to ponder: I recently read Deb Chachra's great book HOW INFRASTRUCTURE WORKS and she made a point I haven't seen articulated elsewhere. Essentially, it's that as a society we've generally treated energy as limited and expensive, and materials as relatively cheap and limitless. But the latter turns out not to be true, and we're on the cusp of - if we make the right decisions - having near-limitless, cheap energy. Why hasn't this concept gotten more air time?
I'd been eyeing that book to add to the already-towering ziggurat of reading material by my desk. You've given me the push I need to get it.
And It's good that you don't always agree with me. I am a consummate bullshit artist and sometimes comment on matters I'm really not qualified to talk about. I appreciate being called on these gaffs. --Both foresight and SF thrive on diversity of perspective, so there's that too.
As a fellow SF writer, 100% agree! The key thing is that bit about making me think - even if I end up still disagreeing, you often make me consider my own biases and whether what I think I know is true. Please keep it up!
Gallbladder update: after four days of investigation, the surgical team finally has a plan. Hopefully I can get it done this weekend. If I am stuck here, I'll get my wife to bring in my laptop and I'll write while I wait. I'm on the surgery list, but can get preempted by any more urgent case that comes in from the ER. Luckily none of this costs me anything so we have made all our decisions strictly according to the unfolding medical evidence--hence the wait. They're just being abundantly cautious, which I am happy about.
I am home, in time for Christmas.
Oh no, Karl! First off, are you receiving good care? Can you rest?
Second, to your question, well: I'm interested in more climate change foresight. Also your take on futures methods.
Once I got past the choke point of the overloaded ER, the care has been exemplary. I've been seen by someone about once every ten minutes; at one point I had four doctors and med techs interviewing me while taking blood, prodding my abdomen, etc. Done two ultrasounds and one CT so far. All free, of course. Anybody would get this treatment if they arrive at this hospital.
Good, both of those are In Plan.
Something for you to do while your recovering: https://www.ohyouprettythings.com/new-products/eno24
Love it, thanks so much!
I hope your surgery goes well and your recovery is swift. Please let us know how it went as soon as you are able.
I'd like to see you discuss how your futures visioning has evolved in your SF, from pre-to-post Foresight training. Basically a 'how has Karl's work evolved, what have you learned about SF & Foresight, and where are you heading' set of articles.
Hmm, cool, I hadn't thought of that.
Get well soon!
Feel better, and here's wishes for a swift recovery.
Count myself as someone interested in foresight methods. I've been noodling around in this space for a while, and the two big questions that I have is:
Does foresight require a proper theory of history? Some mental framework that links cause and effect and extrapolates from the past to the present to the future? Or given the impossibility of prediction, what might be enough theory?
A second question is how do we find those details that make foresight exercises feel realistic and actionable? Almost nobody develops an emotional connection to a policy white paper, but certain little details become evocative. Brand names in Neuromancer, the abuse of "pods" as a signal of future per Andrew Dana Hudson, etc. Valens Games runs experiential foresight exercises which hinge on the actions of plausible NPCs and a simulated feed of news and social media commentary. What makes for a good, hooky detail?
Too big a field of issues to get into in a short post that I'm writing on my phone, but to your first question, a grounding in history is incredibly useful but the future is by definition not the past. It's easy to become trapped by apparent parallels to historical events (comparing now to the 1930s, for example). I treat the future as the dimension of surprise, and foresight as the art of managing surprise.
As to your second question, it takes us straight into the topic of design fiction, which I am writing a couple of long posts about right now--or was, until I got laid up. But yes, I'll be writing about those issues.
My daughter just went through the gall bladder routine in February, so sympathies! Hope you have a quick and easy procedure and no complications.
I'm not sure what to suggest for the newsletter. Toby Buckell pointed me your way a while ago and while I sometimes don't buy the premises of your stories and essays, they always make me think and consider *why*.
One tidbit I'll toss your way to ponder: I recently read Deb Chachra's great book HOW INFRASTRUCTURE WORKS and she made a point I haven't seen articulated elsewhere. Essentially, it's that as a society we've generally treated energy as limited and expensive, and materials as relatively cheap and limitless. But the latter turns out not to be true, and we're on the cusp of - if we make the right decisions - having near-limitless, cheap energy. Why hasn't this concept gotten more air time?
I'd been eyeing that book to add to the already-towering ziggurat of reading material by my desk. You've given me the push I need to get it.
And It's good that you don't always agree with me. I am a consummate bullshit artist and sometimes comment on matters I'm really not qualified to talk about. I appreciate being called on these gaffs. --Both foresight and SF thrive on diversity of perspective, so there's that too.
As a fellow SF writer, 100% agree! The key thing is that bit about making me think - even if I end up still disagreeing, you often make me consider my own biases and whether what I think I know is true. Please keep it up!
I love the sentient Forrests with currency’s stories
Good to hear. I want to do a deep dive into why I thought augmented reality larping would make a good basis for a new economic system. Could be fun.