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Roy Brander's avatar

How the world changes depends so much on demographics.

Manu Saadia, in his book "Trekonomics" handed it down from a pro that there are zero current economists that could predict the structure of a post-scarcity society, with replicators. Maybe "Star Trek", and competition for societal regard alone; but maybe not.

Replicators may not come, but it's hard to envision a 2074 that has population growth - and economists are just as unable to guess at the economic and social structure that would come from the total economic needs of the planet shrinking every year.

It will quickly sink in that we don't value reproduction today; it's considered a thing you do for yourself, not for society. Telling your boss you have 4 kids does not get you status and promotions at work; probably the contrary. People with 1 kid and 4 bedrooms (2 become an office and hobby room) is considered much richer than people with 4 kids, only 2 bedrooms, and the boys on couches. The 4 kids are not thought of as your "riches", but your reason for poverty. A post-farmer world will shrink until that ethic changes.

Off-topic? I'm just saying that I think the guaranteed future demographics will change societal structure more than not-guaranteed, hypothetical technology changes.

Hell, we thought that the one advance, the Atomic Bomb, would have to end war itself, that they "blew up the world", as in the line from "Oppenheimer". But, wouldn't you know it, we figured out a way to keep wars going, anyway, and today spend trillions per year on war materiel.

So when predicting change, I would look at what forces will resist that kind of change, will drag us right back to where we started: with war and income inequality (now back to 1890 levels), those forces were always obvious. Keep an eye upon them when predicting.

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kevin jones's avatar

Is any other sci fi writer writing well on the intersection of ai and rights of nature, like stealing worlds?

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